Cross-disciplinary research project to advance the scientific understanding of climate extremes, help vulnerable populations face the new reality of intensifying climate events, and accelerate the transition to low-carbon resources.
Reducing key scientific uncertainties in how weather and climate extremes respond to warming.
We are building a physical understanding of weather and climate extremes, which is necessary to interpret future climate projections and ensure their credibility. We will focus on extremes of heat, precipitation, and wind and extremes with long return periods (100 years or more). We will address the risk of climate tipping points by rescaling past extreme climate events. We will also use emergent constraints and physical storylines to address uncertainty in the large-scale circulation response, which greatly affects the local response of extremes.
Assess the risk of current and changing extremes in specific locations.
Risk assessment of weather extremes in a changing climate requires downscaling of global climate simulations and local flood modeling. We will develop new downscaling approaches that combine physics with statistical methods (e.g., to downscale cyclones) and through machine learning. We will also use dynamical downscaling with regional high-resolution simulations with fine-grain representations of extreme precipitation.
Co-developing and Operationalizing Climate Adaptation and Preparedness Toolkits for Cities
Climate Adaptation and Preparedness Toolkits will enable climate scientists and local stakeholders to work together to develop new understandings of changing weather and climate extremes, considering local needs. This work will help integrate robust, location-based urban flooding models with a series of risk communication, planning, development, and design modules. The toolkit modules will include online platforms and will guide semi-structured interviews, participatory mapping, and workshops. The toolkit will be developed in partnership with stakeholders in a broad range of locations such as the U.S., Caribbean, and Southern Africa.
Quantify and prepare for the risk to renewable energy infrastructure and grid resilience from changing weather and climate extremes.
We will investigate how extreme weather events can cause shortages of renewable energy resources and damage to energy generation and transmission infrastructure. We will also study how these threats to renewable energy supply intersect with events that dramatically increase energy demand, and we will develop accessible tools for decision-makers that account for the probabilistic nature of climate risks and convey how these risks impact various stakeholders and communities.
Climate change is intensifying extreme weather and climate events such as heatwaves and floods. These devastating events are becoming more intense globally, but we do not adequately know the changing risks for specific regions and communities or how changing extremes will affect the wider use of renewable energy that is needed to limit future greenhouse gas emissions. Our grand challenge will address these key gaps by making improvements in the science and prediction of extremes and their effects on our energy systems. Based on the improved predictions of extremes, we will build a scalable toolkit, initially focused on cities in the United States and Africa, for communities and stakeholders to prepare and adapt. Our team brings together experts in climate science, engineering, design, and machine learning at MIT with external partners to provide the greatest benefit to communities, municipalities, and industry.
This Flagship Project focussed on weather and climate extremes is part of the MIT Climate Grand Challenges, which seeks to deliver high-impact climate solutions for the world.